Admission Realities: 20% Admission Cap (Fact or Fiction)?

While working on this article, a parent contacted us at Techie BEC Konsult regarding the trending issue of only 20% of admission seekers being offered admission in 2024. The parent, like many others, was concerned about such news. 'How can 380,000 out of 1,900,000 be offered admissions?' he asked. 'What provision is made for the other 1,520,000?'

I reassured the man that we would address his concerns in our next article and promised to share it with him once completed. However, I emphasized the need for thorough research, which is better done for a written response.

The Ministry of Education indeed claimed that only 20% of applicants will be admitted. While addressing the media at a CBT center during the 2024 UTME exercise, the minister declared that the percentage of admission out of the registered number of candidates that applied is about 20 percent for universities, polytechnics, and colleges of education.

The alarm was raised due to the 1.9 million applicants for the UTME this year, questioning if indeed only 380,000 would be admitted, leaving over a million and a half students deferred to the next year.

In response to clarification about the fate of the other 80%, the minister asserted that any student unable to proceed to tertiary institutions should have a meaningful life after primary and secondary school education through skill acquisition. In other words, we should expect the 1,520,000 to pursue vocational or non-formal education unless they choose to wait another 365 days to try again.

This article aims to examine whether this claim will hold and what parents, guardians, and admission seekers should expect. Specifically, we will analyze the population of admitted students in recent years compared to the ministry's projections for this year and the future. We will also explore the modalities of admitting students if the 20% admission rate is indeed implemented. Ultimately, we aim to reassure parents whether the claim is accurate, inaccurate, or inconclusive.

Number of Admission Seekers in Previous Years

Over the years, it has been observed that the number of JAMB applicants has consistently increased. For instance, nigeriastat.gov.ng reported 1,722,269 applicants in 2017, followed by a 4.01% increase in 2018 (1,653,127). In those years, 549,763 and 566,719 candidates were admitted, respectively.

In 2019, approximately 1.8 million candidates sought admission through JAMB, with 612,557 eventually admitted. In 2020, JAMB applications surged up to 1,949,983 candidates, of which 551,553 were admitted.

For 2021, JAMB reported registering 1.4 million candidates for both the 2021 UTME and Direct Entry (DE), with 1,351,284 being UTME candidates. Out of these, 429,351 candidates were offered admission. The number of JAMB applicants increased to 1,761,338 in 2022, with 557,626 admitted.

However, in 2023, JAMB witnessed a drop in the number of applicants. The 1,595,779 candidates registered for the 2023 exam fell short of the projected 1.6 million for the entire exercise. As of April 2024 (which is the time of this writing), JAMB has not made public, the number of students admitted, as some schools might still be admitting students from last year. However, available data for the quota of courses such as Medicine and Pharmacy revealed that 482,356 candidates competed for 78,578 admission spaces. This suggests intense competition for admission among candidates - getting us closer to our conclusion.

Whereas this year, the number of applicants rose to about 2 million candidates with 1.94 million to sit for the UTME.

Admission Quotas and Available Spaces

According to the Minister of Education, the percentage of admissions out of the registered number of candidates that applied is "about 20 percent" for universities, polytechnics, and colleges of education. The admission quota here doesn't only apply to candidates seeking admission into universities but also includes those seeking admission into polytechnics and colleges of education (or any other institutions through JAMB).

In this sense, the 20% has to resonate with the admission quotas being used by the institutions in Nigeria. A quick look into the quota system will be required here.

Quota means the number of candidates that should come from each state: it is immaterial whether or not such candidates qualify for such posts or honors. This is the major reason admissions into federal government-owned institutions of learning have come to be by way of ‘federal character’ and ‘quota system’.

According to Bamisaiya in Okonkwo (1991:117), the following guidelines were approved as a means of reflecting federal character in admission to federal universities:

The six first-generation Universities of Ibadan, Nigeria, Lagos, Ahmadu Bello, Ife (Obafemi Awolowo University), and Benin: a. 40% on merit from all the states of the Federation b. 30% from the catchment areas c. 20% for students from educationally less developed states d. 10% for others at the discretion of the university
For the second-generation Nigerian Universities of Calabar, Ilorin, Jos, Kano, Maiduguri, Port Harcourt, and Sokoto: a. 30% no merit from all the states of the federation b. 30% for students from the catchment area c. 30% for students from educationally disadvantaged areas d. 10% for others at the discretion of the University
The third generation of Universities in Nigeria, the Federal Universities of Technology: a. 20% from the catchment areas b. 80% at the discretion of the University

The above quotas might not be widely known in the education sector; what we are most familiar with is what JAMB has always provided. According to the board, for the avoidance of doubt, the admission criteria put in place for federal tertiary institutions, except for a minor amendment about fifteen years ago, have remained the same. That is a. Merit 45%, b. Catchment States (Generally, the closest States around every federal government tertiary institution) 35% and c. Educationally Less Developed States 20%

Similarly, quotas also extend to the number of candidates to be admitted into science, arts, or commercial courses by each institution. The policy that guides the admission process into tertiary institutions in Nigeria is the 60-40 ratio of admission to the science and liberal arts disciplines, respectively, in the university. All Nigerian polytechnics are to adhere strictly to the admission policy of a 70:30 ratio in favor of science and technology-based programs and an 80:20 Science/Art ratio for specialized universities.

Awareness of JAMB and Ministry of Education on Available Spaces

Each year, JAMB and the Ministry of Education (the latter especially) are provided with statistics on the available number of spaces in each higher institution of learning. With this data, the parties can predict the number of students who may eventually be admitted. The number is never stable and does not have to align with the number of applications but rather with the number of available resources of the proposed institutions.

Speaking of the available spaces, the board and ministry should be correct with the data they provide regarding present and future admissions. Yet, something doesn't look right with that 20%. We'll find out soon enough in this work.

First, let's give a rundown summary of the number of applications compared to the admitted in recent years and calculate the percentage. With that, we can compare it with the 20% claim for the year 2024 or possibly the future.

Number of JAMB applicants (admitted and unlucky)

As shown in the table, the number of admitted students is significantly lower compared to the unlucky applicants. However, the figures for admitted applicants are still far from the 20% announced by the Ministry of Education—especially in 2024 when the number of applicants is the highest in the past 8 years. This drives us closer to our conclusion.

What About the Unused Quotas?

Even though institutions admitted a higher number of candidates in the past years (compared to the 20% announced for this year), that figure could have been doubled or nearly, if not for the unused quotas. For example, the available spaces (quota) in 2019 were 1,120,000, of which only 612,557 were used (admitted) - leaving 507,443 unused. By implication, with 1,800,000 applicants that year, the lucky ones should have been 62.22% instead of 34.03% eventually admitted (refer to the table).

However, the figures for admitted applicants are still far from the 20% announced by the Ministry of Education—especially now that the number of applicants is the highest in the past 8 years. This drives us to our conclusion.

NCE admissions by quota showed that in 2021, out of the 454,700 quotas, only 30,731 (6.75%) were used (admitted), in 2022, which had a 469,125 quota, only 35,466 (7.56%) were used (admitted), while in 2023, out of the 472,200 quotas, only 11,735 (2.49%) were used (admitted).

The above report was consistent with reports that show that 405,256 and 400,000 admission quotas were unutilized in the years 2022 and 2020, respectively.

So, the 20% Admission Quota

Going by the Minister of Education's declaration, if 20% is truly the quota for this year or in the future, and factoring in the expected unused quota, which according to the available data can be as high as 30 to 50 percent of the spaces, what will be the number of candidates to be admitted eventually?

Well, with our calculation, if the expected unused quota is 30% of the available spaces (quota) of 388,000 (20% of 1,940,000), what number will be admitted eventually? This means only about 70% of 388,000 will be admitted, totaling 271,600! What if we increase the unused quota to 40%? - 232,800!

Apparently, something is wrong with the 20% announced by the Minister of Education. It's hard to say, but nothing seems to align with the available data. I can't say it's a slip of the tongue or something, but this does not tally up. Or how do you explain only 271,600 or 232,800 being admitted from 1,940,000 applicants, especially if thousands of others merit the admission? Even if there are no unused quotas this year, 388,000 admissions are still not making much sense.

Won't schools use merit, catchment area, and educational-less-privileged-states as criteria again? How many of these students will go to universities, polytechnics, colleges of education, colleges of health, colleges of nursing, and innovative enterprises institutions (those who are using JAMB)?

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Admission Realities: 20% Admission Cap (Fact or Fiction)?